PAID Picks for Saturday 5/4 ~ KY Derby Day

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OFF TURF PICKS PROVIDED ~ ALWAYS MAKE SURE NUMBERS MATCH CORRECT HORSES
Stars (0-5) rate strength of Top Picks ~ (5th pick) in case of scratches


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 1 ~ (2 star)
6 Furlongs | 3 Yr Olds & Up | ALW OPT/CLAIM

#4 LOOSE ON THE TOWN – layoff, drops, back on dirt, scores
#3 CURATE – looms the one to beat
#6 MR CROW – never as good as his rep
#2 CONTROL STAKE – may grab share
(#5 KOWBOY KARMA)
PK5 ~ (3,4/6/4,6,10/2,4,9/3,7,12)


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 2 ~ (3 star)
1 Mile | 3 Yr Olds & Up | ALW OPT/CLAIM

#6 AMERICAN ANTHEM – looks too good
#3 CONQUEST TSUNAMI – turf to dirt, 2nd best
#4 KING ZACHERY – layoff, turns back, in new barn
#2 WAR GIANT – may grab share
(#5 PHANTOM CURRENCY)
PK4 ~ (6/4,6,10/2,4,9/3,7,12)


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 3 ~ (1 star)
6 Furlongs | 3 Yr Olds & Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

#4 SUROOJ – 2nd start, big jock switch
#6 PALMER’S WAY – lost to stakes winner debut, off layoff
#10 ADMIRAL BROWN – working well for new barn
#1 ENTRY – either or
(#3 SADDLE BAR)
PK3 ~ (4,6/2,4,9/7)


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 4 ~ (2 star)
7 Furlongs | 3 Yr Olds | ALW OPT/CLAIM

#4 HIGH CRIME – turns back, ready for best
#2 HIDDEN SCROLL – could have been Derby favorite
#9 FORTIN HILL – off layoff for Chad Brown
#10 MISCHIEVOUS BIRD – sharp off layoff
(#8 YOUVESAIDITALL)
PK5 ~ (2,4,9/3,7,12/2,4,5,7/4/8,11,12)
PK5 ~ (2,4,9/7/2,4,5,7/4,6,8,9/8,11,12)


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 5 ~ (2 star)
1 1/16 Miles | F&M TURF | 3 Yr Olds & Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

#7 SHE’S GOT MOVES – 3rd start, ready for best
#3 BRIE’S LUCKY CHARM – the one to beat
#12 GOLD STANDARD – post hurts
#5 HUNGRY KITTEN – blinkers on, 2nd off layoff
(#1 ENCORE KITTEN)
—-[DIRT 15,17,7,10,16]—-
PK4 ~ (3,7,12/2,4,5,7/4/8,11,12)
PK4 ~ (7/2,4,5,7/4,6,8,9/8,11,12)


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 6 ~ (1 star)
7 Furlongs | F&M | 4 Yr Olds & Up | G1 STAKES

#2 SPICED PERFECTION – 2nd off, never better
#7 MARLEY’S FREEDOM – favorite, one to beat
#5 AMY’S CHALLENGE – 0/3 at 7 furlongs
#4 TALK VUEVE TO ME – goes forward 2nd off
(#6 EMBOLDENED)
PK3 ~ (2,4,5,7/4/8,11,12)
PK3 ~ (2/4,6,8,9/8,11,12)


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 7 ~ (3 star)
1 Mile | F&M TURF | 4 Yr Olds & Up | G2 STAKES

#4 BEAU RECALL – never better, rolls home late
#9 ENVIRONS – one to beat
#8 GOT STORMY – on nice up-cycle
#6 PRECIEUCE – fresh for Chad Brown
(#3 PROCTOR’S LEDGE)
PK3 ~ (4/8,11,12/1,5,8)
PK3 ~ (4,6,8,9/8,11,12/8)


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 8 ~ (3 star)
7 Furlongs | 4 Yr Olds & Up | G1 STAKES

#12 WHITMORE – sits back & rolls late
#8 MITOLE – speed of the speed
#11 UNO MAS MODELO – strong late kick
#1 DO SHARE – may grab share
(#9 UNCONTESTED)
PK5 ~ (8,11,12/1,5,8/7,10,13,14/6,12/1)
PK5 ~ (8,11,12/8/7,10,13,14/6,12/1,5,8,16)


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 9 ~ *(3 STAR)*
1 1/16 Miles | TURF | 3 Yr Olds | G2 STAKES

#8 AVIE’S FLATTER – exploded last, gets better
#1 A THREAD OF BLUE – the one to beat
#5 SEISMIC WAVE – never better, handles ground
#12 THE BLACK ALBUM – may grab share late
(#2 SOCIAL PARANOIA)
PK4 ~ (1,5,8/7,10,13,14/6,12/1)
PK4 ~ (8/7,10,13,14/6,12/1,5,8,16)


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 10 ~ (2 star)
1 Mile | 3 Yr Olds | G3 STAKES

#7 MR MONEY – faced much better, drops & scores
#10 INSTAGRAND – obvious one to beat
#14 LAST JUDGEMENT – fresh, turns back sharp
#13 HOG CREEK HUSTLE – be closing fast
(#1 DURKIN’S CALL)
PK5 ~ (7/6,12/1,5,8,16/2,4,10/1,2,5)
PK5 ~ (7,10,13,14/6,12/1/2,4,10/1,2,5)


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 11 ~ (3 star)
1 1/8 Miles | TURF | 4 Yr Olds & Up | G1 STAKES

#6 CLYDE’S IMAGE – never better, stone cold runner
#12 BRICKS AND MORTAR – the one to beat
#2 RAGING BULL – 2nd off the layoff
#8 BREAKING THE RUES – may grab small share
(#10 TICONDEROGA)
PK4 ~ (6,12/1,5,8,16/2,4,10/1,2,5)


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 12 ~ (3 star)
1 1/4 Mile ~ Kentucky Derby| 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES

#1 WAR OF WILL – only needs to break, wire to wire for score
#8 TACITUS – distance & wet no worry, 2nd best
#16 GAME WINNER – grinds out a board placement
#5 IMPROBABLE – may carry further on wet track
(#3 BY MY STANDARDS)
TRIFECTA’S ~ (1/5,8,16/3,5,8,16) (5,8,16/1/3,5,8,16)
TRIFECTA ~ (1/5,8,16/2,3,5,8,13,14,16,17,18)
TRIFECTA ~ (1/2,3,5,8,13,14,16,17,18/5,8,16)
TRIFECTA ~ (5,8,16/1/2,3,5,8,13,14,16,17,18)


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 13 ~ (2 star)
1 1/16 Miles | 3 Yr Olds | ALW OPT/CLAIM

#4 AND SEEK – ready to jump forward
#10 BANDON WOODS – the one to beat
#2 GET THE PRIZE – 2nd time stretching out
#11 HOFFA’S UNION – may last for share
(#7 GREAT SUCCESS)


~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 14 ~ (2 star)
1 1/8 Miles | 3 Yr Olds & Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

#5 TONY SMALL – controls the race with speed
#2 RANGER UP – looms the one to beat
#1 ROTATION – saves all the ground
#10 METHODICAL – gets 1st Lasix
(#11 SILVERZAR)

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About Author

MY WAGERING STRATEGIES I handicap the races and list 4 horses per race (plus another in case scratches) in order of preference so multi-race and inter-race wagers can be formed. Currently, I am focused on BELMONT PARK  providing my Pick5, Pick4 and Pick3 wagering strategies. My selections for turf races are 2nd to none. I find value and Double Digit Top Pick Turf Winner as my specialty.. Spot Plays may also be included in the daily selections, weekends more probable. Tracks for potential Spot Plays include DEL MAR, WOODBINE, COLONIAL DOWNS, MONMOUTH PARK, and GULFSTREAM PARK. I'll focus around turf races looking to cash nice tickets.

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