PAID Picks for Saturday 5/4 ~ KY Derby Day

OFF TURF PICKS PROVIDED ~ ALWAYS MAKE SURE NUMBERS MATCH CORRECT HORSES
Stars (0-5) rate strength of Top Picks ~ (5th pick) in case of scratches
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 1 ~ (2 star)
6 Furlongs | 3 Yr Olds & Up | ALW OPT/CLAIM
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#4 LOOSE ON THE TOWN – layoff, drops, back on dirt, scores
#3 CURATE – looms the one to beat
#6 MR CROW – never as good as his rep
#2 CONTROL STAKE – may grab share
(#5 KOWBOY KARMA)
PK5 ~ (3,4/6/4,6,10/2,4,9/3,7,12)
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 2 ~ (3 star)
1 Mile | 3 Yr Olds & Up | ALW OPT/CLAIM
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#6 AMERICAN ANTHEM – looks too good
#3 CONQUEST TSUNAMI – turf to dirt, 2nd best
#4 KING ZACHERY – layoff, turns back, in new barn
#2 WAR GIANT – may grab share
(#5 PHANTOM CURRENCY)
PK4 ~ (6/4,6,10/2,4,9/3,7,12)
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 3 ~ (1 star)
6 Furlongs | 3 Yr Olds & Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
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#4 SUROOJ – 2nd start, big jock switch
#6 PALMER’S WAY – lost to stakes winner debut, off layoff
#10 ADMIRAL BROWN – working well for new barn
#1 ENTRY – either or
(#3 SADDLE BAR)
PK3 ~ (4,6/2,4,9/7)
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 4 ~ (2 star)
7 Furlongs | 3 Yr Olds | ALW OPT/CLAIM
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#4 HIGH CRIME – turns back, ready for best
#2 HIDDEN SCROLL – could have been Derby favorite
#9 FORTIN HILL – off layoff for Chad Brown
#10 MISCHIEVOUS BIRD – sharp off layoff
(#8 YOUVESAIDITALL)
PK5 ~ (2,4,9/3,7,12/2,4,5,7/4/8,11,12)
PK5 ~ (2,4,9/7/2,4,5,7/4,6,8,9/8,11,12)
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 5 ~ (2 star)
1 1/16 Miles | F&M TURF | 3 Yr Olds & Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
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#7 SHE’S GOT MOVES – 3rd start, ready for best
#3 BRIE’S LUCKY CHARM – the one to beat
#12 GOLD STANDARD – post hurts
#5 HUNGRY KITTEN – blinkers on, 2nd off layoff
(#1 ENCORE KITTEN)
—-[DIRT 15,17,7,10,16]—-
PK4 ~ (3,7,12/2,4,5,7/4/8,11,12)
PK4 ~ (7/2,4,5,7/4,6,8,9/8,11,12)
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 6 ~ (1 star)
7 Furlongs | F&M | 4 Yr Olds & Up | G1 STAKES
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#2 SPICED PERFECTION – 2nd off, never better
#7 MARLEY’S FREEDOM – favorite, one to beat
#5 AMY’S CHALLENGE – 0/3 at 7 furlongs
#4 TALK VUEVE TO ME – goes forward 2nd off
(#6 EMBOLDENED)
PK3 ~ (2,4,5,7/4/8,11,12)
PK3 ~ (2/4,6,8,9/8,11,12)
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 7 ~ (3 star)
1 Mile | F&M TURF | 4 Yr Olds & Up | G2 STAKES
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#4 BEAU RECALL – never better, rolls home late
#9 ENVIRONS – one to beat
#8 GOT STORMY – on nice up-cycle
#6 PRECIEUCE – fresh for Chad Brown
(#3 PROCTOR’S LEDGE)
PK3 ~ (4/8,11,12/1,5,8)
PK3 ~ (4,6,8,9/8,11,12/8)
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 8 ~ (3 star)
7 Furlongs | 4 Yr Olds & Up | G1 STAKES
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#12 WHITMORE – sits back & rolls late
#8 MITOLE – speed of the speed
#11 UNO MAS MODELO – strong late kick
#1 DO SHARE – may grab share
(#9 UNCONTESTED)
PK5 ~ (8,11,12/1,5,8/7,10,13,14/6,12/1)
PK5 ~ (8,11,12/8/7,10,13,14/6,12/1,5,8,16)
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 9 ~ *(3 STAR)*
1 1/16 Miles | TURF | 3 Yr Olds | G2 STAKES
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#8 AVIE’S FLATTER – exploded last, gets better
#1 A THREAD OF BLUE – the one to beat
#5 SEISMIC WAVE – never better, handles ground
#12 THE BLACK ALBUM – may grab share late
(#2 SOCIAL PARANOIA)
PK4 ~ (1,5,8/7,10,13,14/6,12/1)
PK4 ~ (8/7,10,13,14/6,12/1,5,8,16)
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 10 ~ (2 star)
1 Mile | 3 Yr Olds | G3 STAKES
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#7 MR MONEY – faced much better, drops & scores
#10 INSTAGRAND – obvious one to beat
#14 LAST JUDGEMENT – fresh, turns back sharp
#13 HOG CREEK HUSTLE – be closing fast
(#1 DURKIN’S CALL)
PK5 ~ (7/6,12/1,5,8,16/2,4,10/1,2,5)
PK5 ~ (7,10,13,14/6,12/1/2,4,10/1,2,5)
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 11 ~ (3 star)
1 1/8 Miles | TURF | 4 Yr Olds & Up | G1 STAKES
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#6 CLYDE’S IMAGE – never better, stone cold runner
#12 BRICKS AND MORTAR – the one to beat
#2 RAGING BULL – 2nd off the layoff
#8 BREAKING THE RUES – may grab small share
(#10 TICONDEROGA)
PK4 ~ (6,12/1,5,8,16/2,4,10/1,2,5)
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 12 ~ (3 star)
1 1/4 Mile ~ Kentucky Derby| 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES
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#1 WAR OF WILL – only needs to break, wire to wire for score
#8 TACITUS – distance & wet no worry, 2nd best
#16 GAME WINNER – grinds out a board placement
#5 IMPROBABLE – may carry further on wet track
(#3 BY MY STANDARDS)
TRIFECTA’S ~ (1/5,8,16/3,5,8,16) (5,8,16/1/3,5,8,16)
TRIFECTA ~ (1/5,8,16/2,3,5,8,13,14,16,17,18)
TRIFECTA ~ (1/2,3,5,8,13,14,16,17,18/5,8,16)
TRIFECTA ~ (5,8,16/1/2,3,5,8,13,14,16,17,18)
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 13 ~ (2 star)
1 1/16 Miles | 3 Yr Olds | ALW OPT/CLAIM
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#4 AND SEEK – ready to jump forward
#10 BANDON WOODS – the one to beat
#2 GET THE PRIZE – 2nd time stretching out
#11 HOFFA’S UNION – may last for share
(#7 GREAT SUCCESS)
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~~~~ CHURCHILL RACE 14 ~ (2 star)
1 1/8 Miles | 3 Yr Olds & Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
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#5 TONY SMALL – controls the race with speed
#2 RANGER UP – looms the one to beat
#1 ROTATION – saves all the ground
#10 METHODICAL – gets 1st Lasix
(#11 SILVERZAR)